On December 30, gold prices edged slightly higher, but the market remains volatile. On December 29, spot gold in New York plunged 4.42%, marking the largest single-day drop since October 21, closing at $4,331.96/oz. COMEX gold futures dropped 4.45% to $4,350.2/oz, both falling over $200 in a single day.
The decline also impacted domestic gold jewelry prices. Chow Sang Sang jewelry fell to 1,353 CNY/g (-53 CNY), Lao Miao gold to 1,359 CNY/g (-44 CNY), and Lao Feng Xiang to 1,363 CNY/g (-45 CNY), all slipping below the 1,400 CNY threshold.
Market Outlook
CME Group announced across-the-board margin hikes for metal futures, including gold, silver, palladium, and lithium, effective after Monday’s close. Gold futures margins increased 10%, silver 13.6%, and platinum 23%. UBS warns that short-term profit-taking risk is rising, and thin year-end liquidity may amplify volatility, making near-term trends difficult to interpret.
CITIC Securities reports that three major macro “short” traders share a consistent 2026 outlook: slow-moving macro shifts may pressure the USD, and historically, dollar weakness correlates with higher gold prices. Precious metals are expected to benefit from this “currency depreciation” dynamic.
CITIC Futures notes that macro conditions still favor precious and base metals for asset allocation, though short-term risks exist. Silver, after a strong rally, faces higher volatility and possible retracement. Base metals such as copper, aluminum, and tin remain attractive on supply disruptions, with continued optimism on lithium carbonate. Domestic equities remain defensively positioned during year-end and policy gaps.
In summary, gold may experience short-term fluctuations but remains resilient in the context of USD depreciation and macro fundamentals, while precious and base metals continue to offer investment opportunities.
