On January 30, the market wholesale price of Flying Fairy Moutai rose for the third consecutive day. Data from third-party pricing platforms show that the per-bottle price of sealed cases broke above RMB 1,700, marking a single-day increase of about RMB 100 per bottle — the largest daily gain so far this year. Retail prices moved in tandem. A major liquor retail chain in Chengdu quoted Flying Fairy Moutai at RMB 1,860 per bottle that day, up RMB 160 from two days earlier.
Many distributors say the rebound in demand has exceeded expectations. Some liquor traders even described the situation on social media as “far beyond expectations,” noting that current purchasing power feels “extraordinarily strong.” As the Spring Festival peak season deepens, some distributors have already fully executed their January and February quotas. This has raised the possibility of demand outstripping supply, providing sustained upward momentum for wholesale prices.
Market observers note that beyond the traditional seasonal demand associated with the Lunar New Year, the rally may also be linked to increased supply through the i Maotai platform and the coordinated rollout of key product lines. By reaching consumer groups beyond traditional dealer channels, this strategy has effectively stimulated demand. At the same time, earlier industry concerns that i Maotai’s expanded supply would disrupt the conventional sales system appear to be easing.
The key question now is how long this price rally can last — and whether Flying Fairy Moutai can maintain price stability once the peak season fades.
Prices adjusted multiple times within a single day, with retail quotes reaching RMB 1,860 per bottle.
“Prices have been surging these past two days. Yesterday alone, they went up four times, and today they’ve already risen twice,” said a sales associate at a liquor distribution chain in Chengdu on the morning of January 30. With the holiday approaching, consumption demand has risen sharply while available supply remains relatively tight. According to the store, Flying Fairy Moutai was selling at RMB 1,840 per bottle for loose bottles and RMB 1,860 per bottle for sealed cases — about RMB 160 higher than just two days earlier.
This streak of rapid increases has caught many traders by surprise.
“Logically, the period before the Lunar New Year is always a strong sales season, with gift-giving and higher consumption,” one distributor said. “But few expected prices to climb for several consecutive days, let alone by such a large margin.” On January 29, another liquor trader pointed out that the prevailing view had been that continued supply through i Maotai would cap wholesale prices. Actual market performance, however, has told a different story.
Earlier this year, nearly 20 Moutai products were launched on the i Maotai platform in quick succession, establishing a new “Moutai market pricing framework” based on retail pricing. Distributors initially worried that this framework would anchor consumer expectations, making buyers less accepting of market-driven price fluctuations in the future.
According to a distributor in northern China, market sentiment in early to mid-January was highly cautious, with prices fluctuating noticeably. At their lowest point, local wholesale prices fell to around RMB 1,510–1,520 per bottle, and in some cases, out-of-region supply could be obtained for as little as RMB 1,500 per bottle.
Current price movements may now offer the clearest answer to those earlier concerns. A comparison of data from multiple third-party platforms shows that on January 30, wholesale prices for sealed cases of Flying Fairy Moutai generally ranged from RMB 1,710 to RMB 1,770 per bottle, while loose bottles traded around RMB 1,650 to RMB 1,700. Single-day increases were estimated at RMB 100–160 for sealed cases and RMB 80–130 for loose bottles.
Some analysts believe the demand surge is also closely tied to i Maotai. Since January 1, user numbers on the platform have risen sharply. According to Moutai’s disclosed data on newly added users, many are not core customers from traditional channels but consumers who were previously underserved by the existing distribution system.
One Moutai distributor noted that, in practice, i Maotai has attracted large numbers of new and long-tail consumers by emphasizing authenticity, official pricing, and product assurance. A portion of these new customers has since transitioned to offline channels, and most were not part of the traditional dealer customer base.
Liquor industry expert Xiao Zhuxing commented that price normalization has lowered the threshold for consuming Moutai, attracting small business owners and individual consumers who tend to be more price-sensitive. He added that the rapid and sharp price increases may also have been amplified by speculative trading, with resellers spreading expectations of rising prices and encouraging more consumers to buy in.
Opinions remain divided on whether the rally can be sustained.
Beyond the current upswing, the market is more focused on whether Flying Fairy Moutai can establish a stable price floor after the Spring Festival. Feedback from various participants suggests that optimistic expectations are currently prevailing, largely based on fundamental supply-demand dynamics.
One distributor said that many dealers have already sold out their January and February quotas, potentially leading to a supply-demand imbalance. If Moutai advances March allocations or increases pre-holiday supply through i Maotai, overall sales pressure in 2026 could ease significantly. Under such circumstances, concerns about a post-holiday price drop would diminish. From the distributor’s perspective, RMB 1,499 remains a strong support level. January’s performance indicates that i Maotai’s supply at RMB 1,499 has helped offset declines in non-standard Moutai products, suggesting first-quarter sales data should be particularly strong.
This optimism is underpinned by Moutai’s strict control over total supply.
Due to limitations related to production regions, traditional craftsmanship, ecological capacity, and the cultivation of skilled artisans, annual Moutai output remains inherently constrained.
Moutai management has previously emphasized that i Maotai does not increase total supply but rather breaks through closed distribution circles. By pacing releases more rationally and ensuring products reach genuine consumers in a stable and orderly manner, the platform is intended to promote long-term market stability.
“Given unchanged total supply, product availability is likely to remain tight even after the Spring Festival,” one distributor said, noting that recent optimizations to i Maotai’s allocation mechanisms further support this view.
A more cautious camp, however, argues that the current rally is partly driven by short-term holiday gifting demand. The long-term repurchase behavior of new consumer groups remains uncertain, making a post-holiday correction highly likely.
A northern China distributor revealed that group-purchase volumes are down more than 30% year-on-year, with most purchases now limited to two or four bottles for gift-giving purposes. These buyers generally lack sustained purchasing power. Meanwhile, traditional core customers who once bought by the case are also reducing repeat purchases.
From this perspective, overall consumer spending remains subdued. As holiday-driven demand fades, prices are expected to retreat. In addition, the pace and scale of i Maotai’s future supply releases remain a key variable influencing price expectations.
That said, even cautious distributors acknowledge a noticeable improvement in sentiment compared with the beginning of the year. One noted that price expectations are no longer as pessimistic, citing Moutai’s recent policy moves — such as eliminating certain layers of distribution and easing the burden on dealers — which have helped improve the channel ecosystem. As long as i Maotai’s supply remains moderate, Flying Fairy Moutai prices are likely to enter a more stable and orderly phase.
