As 2025 earnings forecasts are gradually disclosed, the operating conditions of A-share listed photovoltaic (PV) companies have become clearer. Overall, influenced by supply-demand mismatches and challenging market conditions, most PV firms continue to report losses, with “expected loss” being a recurring keyword in performance reports.
Leading PV manufacturers face significant losses: Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH) anticipates a loss of 9–10 billion CNY; LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH) expects 6–6.5 billion CNY; Jinko Solar (688223.SH) expects 5.9–6.9 billion CNY; TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ) expects 8.2–9.6 billion CNY; Trina Solar (688599.SH) expects 6.5–7.5 billion CNY; JA Solar (002459.SZ) expects 4.5–4.8 billion CNY; and Aiko Solar (600732.SH) expects 1.2–1.9 billion CNY.
Since Q4 2023, several PV leaders have experienced nine consecutive quarters of losses. Analysts attribute the losses mainly to prolonged low module prices caused by “over-competition” within the industry and insufficient end-user demand. Tongwei explained that although new PV installations grew year-on-year in 2025, growth slowed in the second half of the year. Oversupply issues persisted, production rates along the value chain declined, raw material costs like silver rose, and product prices continued to fall, maintaining substantial operational pressure.
LONGi Green Energy added that supply-demand mismatch, low-price competition, domestic electricity market reforms, and overseas trade barriers have made the business environment highly challenging.
Nevertheless, as “anti-overcompetition” policies take effect, some firms are gradually climbing out of losses. Compared with 2024, LONGi may reduce its losses by up to 30.38%, and Aiko Solar could cut losses by up to 77.44%. Wang Bohua, honorary president of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, noted that in the first three quarters of 2025, the PV main industry chain’s revenue fell 16.9% YoY, but gross margins improved to 3.64%, reaching 5.61% in Q3, with unregulated capacity expansion effectively controlled.
Furthermore, many leading companies have set explicit profit targets for 2026 in equity incentive plans. Trina Solar’s 2026 restricted stock incentive plan requires a net profit of no less than 200 million CNY in 2026, 3.2 billion CNY in 2027, and 6.2 billion CNY in 2028. LONGi’s 2025 employee stock ownership plan also sets net profit targets above zero for 2026, with 3 billion CNY and 6 billion CNY targets for 2027 and 2028 respectively.
In the market, supported by “anti-overcompetition” measures and short-term benefits from the removal of export tax rebates, PV module prices have rebounded. Since the beginning of this month, Trina Solar has raised module prices three times, now ranging from 0.88–0.92 CNY/W. According to Infolink Consulting, leading module firms responding to industry self-regulation have generally raised prices by 0.02–0.04 CNY/W, and high-price transactions in distributed channels have begun to appear. Price support in intermediate links such as wafers and cells has further promoted terminal module price increases.
In conclusion, while 2025 remains a loss-heavy year for the PV sector, policies against overcompetition and industry self-discipline are gradually improving market order. Some companies have set clear 2026 profit turnaround targets, signaling early signs of industry recovery.
