With Trump back in the White House, Washington’s trade policy has returned to a combative tone, and India has become one of the first targets in this renewed trade war. As of August 1, 2025, the US has imposed 25% tariffs on various Indian products, while threatening additional “secondary sanctions” for India's continued purchase of Russian energy. However, the Modi government remains unmoved, vowing to keep importing oil and gas from Russia. Behind India’s defiance lies a complex web of strategic and economic calculations.
1. Limited Dependence on the US Market
India’s exports to the US account for only 2.1% of its GDP, mainly consisting of textiles, chemicals, machinery, and agricultural goods. These goods can be redirected to other markets, making India relatively resilient to US pressure.
2. Key Tech Exports Exempted
Trump’s tariff policy excluded smartphones, computers, and other electronics—sectors where India, particularly through iPhone exports, saw 90% growth last year. These exemptions help buffer the broader impact on India's trade surplus with the US.
3. Russian Energy: A Strategic Shift
India now sources 35% of its energy needs from Russia, benefiting from long-term contracts and discounted prices. The transition from Middle Eastern suppliers to Russia has already reshaped India’s energy strategy.
4. Deep India-Russia Strategic Ties
The India-Russia relationship dates back to the 1950s and spans energy, defense, and nuclear cooperation. Over 50% of India’s military hardware is Russian-made. Modi and Putin have met 17 times in the past decade—clear evidence of deep-rooted ties that Washington cannot easily disrupt.
5. Limited Impact of US Secondary Sanctions
"Secondary sanctions" aim to punish countries doing business with Russia, but imposing such tariffs on India would strain broader US-India ties—something the US may not afford strategically, especially with China rising in the background.
6. Redefining Global Trade Alliances
This conflict reflects a broader clash between “America First” and “Make in India.” While the US seeks to rebuild its industrial base, India is asserting itself as a manufacturing hub. The outcome could significantly reshape global supply chains and trade dynamics.
Conclusion:
Modi’s firm stance signals India’s growing autonomy on the global stage. No longer just a geopolitical pawn, India is carving a strategic path that balances global powers while securing national interests.
