Market Review
- Since April 2025, phosphate chemicals up >50%, fluorochemicals up ~70%, outperforming tech stocks.
- Leading companies: Tianji +500%, Do-Fluoride +200%, Tianci Materials +40%.
Key Drivers
- Lithium Battery Demand Recovery:
- Phosphate chemicals: phosphate ore → lithium iron phosphate cathode → lithium batteries
- Fluorochemicals: fluorite/fluorosilicic acid → HF/LiPF6 → key lithium battery intermediates
- LiPF6 price: <50k RMB/t in July → 180k RMB/t in Nov, +260% in 3 months
- Domestic energy storage battery shipments: 430GWh (+100% YoY), full-year forecast 580GWh
- Supply Constraints:
- LiPF6 capacity concentrated among top players, new supply limited short-term
- Domestic old chemical capacity exiting, international high-cost capacity shrinking
- Traditional vs Emerging Demand:
- Real estate & ICE vehicle demand weak, while EVs, PV, energy storage, AI demand strong
- Crude oil & coal prices relatively low, potential upside
Global Signal
- Buffett’s $9.7B acquisition of OxyChem signals US chemical industry may be at cycle bottom
- Global capex declining, supply tightening, industry outlook improving
Risks
- Phosphate & fluorochemical valuations already reasonable or high
- Future rallies may carry accumulated risks
- Focus on next potential sector tailwinds rather than chasing highs
